Greek Default and the Euro Lives?
I read an interesting report today from someone high up in a top European Bank. They claim that there will be a minimum 50% haircut for the Greek creditors but that Greece will stay in the euro. Now this intrigues me because a small default is not really going to stop the debt slave procession indeed if anything it will cause more pain for longer. However, what about the other option of a full default plus a return to the Drachma. What then? Well I can only see a double dose of pain from this as the Drachma will surely become worthless on the world stage rather rapidly.
The other point that makes this a believable scenario is that there is simply not the legal framework in place in Europe to be able to kick anyone out. Or indeed what happens if someone does actually leave. But this does not stop people like Marc Faber believing that at least one country will leave whether it is Portugal or Greece he is not sure. Personally I believe the southern states of Europe are in the most trouble and would gain the most from exiting, with the possible exception of Italy. Returning to cheap tourist destinations could save them in the medium term as well as make their produce much much more competitive on the global playing field. Either way without a default Greece may as well end it all now. At least a default gives it a chance.
Tags:default , drachma , eu , greece
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